Memoria Meatgrinder #2: Empty Add-Up Pacing

23 May, 2026

Table of Contents

1. The Tests
2. The Results
3. Empty Draw Requirements
4. Empty Add-Up Styles

Overview

I've been doing a lot of tinkering with His Majesty the Worm's Meatgrinder: the game's equivalent of a random encounter table (featuring many more fun details, such as the possibility of a malicious snail eating your hair).

One thing I discussed recently in my post Memoria Meatgrinder (about tracking dungeon memory) was the Empty Add-Up. In essence, the Empty Add-Up method uses empty draws on the Meatgrinder table as a countdown (or count up, perhaps) to some sort of change, harm, or consequence. For example:

The GM has an event that will occur when they have drawn 5 empty results from the Meatgrinder table. Having just shuffled their deck for the first time, they now run the chance of drawing cards with events they've already ran (and therefore crossed out). As they draw repeat cards - empty events - they tick the clock. When they reach 5 empty results, the event occurs.

With that in mind, I realized while working on a dungeon concept that there's really no way to tell at a glance what a reasonable number of required ticks is. How often does an empty draw even happen? How quickly can a guild expect a change to occur? I decided to run a number of tests in order to figure this out.

The Tests

I'll say it first, y'all: I am not a mathematician, and I am not a data scientist. I am just a wee little fellow who likes tapping away at my keyboard and playing dice card games. But I can at least come up with SOMETHING, god damn it. I can get some eyeballed numbers.

Questions

• How many watches does it take to reach 5 ticks worth of empty draws?
• How is the deck managed? How often does shuffling occur?
  • How frequent are Challenges (which nearly always result in a shuffle)?

Methodology

1. Select a specific deck strategy for my data set.
   • Use a wide variety of deck strategies, some more consistent than others (deliberately) to get a wide variety of possible situations.
2. Using that deck strategy, do 10 runs of each. A run ends when 5 empty results have been drawn.
3. Track exactly when a new empty result is drawn, with a focus on the number of watches required to reach 5 ticks. By doing so, I still have information on when 1, 2, 3, or 4 ticks occur.
4. Compile all these numbers to establish a few helpful rules of thumb for using Empty Add-Up mechanics in a dungeon.

The Deck Strategies

1. D5, S, R: A relatively standard starting number; hardly factors in the randomness inherent to the system, though.
2. D10, S, R: Larger numbers of draws before shuffling.
3. D5, S, T11, R: A veeeery loose attempt at emulating a Challenge's effect on the cards. Essentially, it assumes you shuffle mid-Challenge, use about 11 cards, and then draw 5 cards before you end up in another Challenge.
4. Random Bullshit Go: I sorta just did whatever. Drew 10, discarded 7, shuffled with 20 cards left in the deck, etc. I did 10 runs of this manually and then used some dice to determine how many I'd pull, discard, etc. for another 10 (total 20 runs).

The Results

With all my numbers down, I got the mean, median, and mode for each strategy. In essence, these are the expected number of watches required for 5 empty draws. As you can see, every strategy ended up in roughly the same range.

And this makes sense! Of course they do! With the way the empty draw works, it naturally results in a very specific range. The reason for this is obvious: every card you draw that isn't an empty result, is now a new empty result the next time you shuffle. What ends up happening in every strategy is you might get 1-2 ticks around 10-13 draws in, and then you suddenly get them all at once around 16-20. The Meatgrinder ends up so barren that it becomes unlikely that you don't draw an empty result.

To note once more, I did not account for returning to the City. Because of the empty spiral that begins around ~16 watches, leaving before then could significantly increase the number of watches required. If they keep leaving as early as 10 watches, for some reason, it may take as many as 50 - 70 watches to achieve 5 empty ticks. But that's unlikely, because who on earth even plays like that???

Therefore, we can say that at least as an eyeball estimate, as a rule of thumb: the expected number of watches for 5 empty ticks is ~18.

The Empty Spiral

An important takeaway about the pacing of Empty Draws is what I'm calling the "Empty Spiral." While I just talked about the concept, it's worth establishing in its own section.

As you pull cards and scratch events off the Meatgrinder table, more and more empty draws become possible. Every single event you draw becomes a future empty draw possibility. In every single test I ran, the first 1-2 ticks were likely to appear by 10-12 draws. They trickle in slowly. Once I hit ~16+ draws, it wasn't uncommon to get all of the remaining ticks back-to-back.

With this in mind, it's important to understand your pacing: you are unlikely to just "get a tick here and there". Instead, you are likely to get the majority all at once, with little room for the guild to react.

The Min-Max Average Rule

Once I had a rough estimate for 5 ticks, I went ahead and looked at my numbers for 3 ticks. What I found was that, on average, you could expect to achieve 3 ticks around 12-15 watches. This was a fairly consistent result across all deck strategies.

This led me to notice a pattern that I think (likely) serves as a universal rule for the Empty Add-Up Method: the absolute minimum and the absolute maximum required draws, when averaged out, are roughly a guideline for how many watches it will take to fill the ticks in.

When you seek 5 empty ticks in order to trigger the consequence, the absolute minimum required number of draws is 10. This assumes you draw 5, shuffle, and immediately draw the exact same 5. While this is unlikely, it is our absolute minimum.

On the other hand, the absolute maximum is 26. This assumes you draw all 21, shuffle, and then... well, the next 5 draws will always be empty. While unlikely, this is our absolute maximum.

When taking these numbers and averaging them out, we get... 18 watches!

What's interesting about this is the relative consistency of it all. For example, the same process for 3 ticks (min 6, max 24) gives us an average of 15 watches. While on the high end of this range, it is nonetheless within the range. I can only assume that most other numbers are somewhat close to matching this pattern.

In order to estimate the number of watches required for your desired empty draws, perform this formula; X is the number of ticks:

(( X * 2) + ( X + 21))/2 = Watches

Final Observations

With all this in mind, here's a list of observations that can be made about these numbers in relation to our dungeons:

• Assuming 8-15 rooms per session, this is a minimum of 8-15 watches per session.
  • Given the tendency for adventurers to Fuck Around For Way Too Long and the likelihood of a Challenge or two, 10-17 watches may be a more appropriate number.
• For 5 ticks, it is likely that it will take 1 full session (plus a little extra) of the Crawl Phase in order to trigger your consequence.
• I cannot possibly tell you how frequent City Phases should actually be, but in most cases I would assume that the guild will trigger a 5-tick consequence before they leave for the City.

Empty Draw Requirements

• 2 ticks (~10-13 watches): By the time this occurs, it is likely the guild will have explored a third of your dungeon. 2-tick events are going to occur right as the guild begins to feel settled into the dungeon, as opposed to when they feel like they've mastered it. A 2 tick event should ideally be small, or something intended to be an expected and perhaps unsurprising event. May be good for Dungeon Cycles.
• 3 ticks (~12-15): By the time this occurs, it is likely the guild will have explored a third to half of your dungeon. It's quite reasonable to set this as the standard number of ticks for an effect you want to occur in a timely manner, as opposed to one you want to put off for a long time. With 3 ticks, I suggest changes that interact with the moment-to-moment exploration but don't completely reshape the nature of the space (not early enough, not late enough).
• 5 ticks (~17-22): By the time this occurs, it is likely the guild will have explored a little over half of your dungeon. Any change you consider necessary to the experience of the dungeon as a whole is unlikely to be a good fit for 5. Instead, 5 should be reserved for things intended to shake things up and leave your players surprised.
  • By the time they've explored that much dungeon, they'll be feeling like they understand its tricks - and that is a perfect time to shock them into feeling wary again. On the other hand, it is not a good size for an ultimate consequence of horribly bad, because it is essentially guaranteed to happen if they're at all thorough with their exploration.
• 6+ ticks: As you go beyond 5 ticks, you begin to enter a space where the session requirements grow progressively high. The moment the guild returns to the City, the progress towards clearing out Meatgrinder events is completely reset. While 6 may be reasonable, by the time you've hit 8 ticks you're very unlikely to see it happen in a single session. Indeed, you may find that the guild can't even reach it before they've cleared that particular dungeon floor (so perhaps best used as something to explicitly avoid, such as a time limit perhaps).
  • As you raise the requirement, the events should be expanded to match. A large tick requirement should lead to an event with massive consequences for the dungeon as a whole, to - perhaps - the entire Underworld (and therefore could be used across every Meatgrinder).

Empty Add-Up Styles

I listed a wide variety of possible uses for Empty Add-Up mechanics in my previous article. Let's revisit them with our new knowledge, and allow me to make some required tick suggestions for each format.

Dungeon State Change

The waking of a Dungeon Lord, the waking of the undead, the collapse of certain pathways as new ones open, the raising of the water level, etc. Dungeon State Changes make for an excellent increase in stakes, but the nature of them determines what the best choice in tick requirement is for your Empty Add-Up event.

If you want the change to occur once they feel settled into your dungeon and are ready for more danger, then 3 to 5 ticks feels appropriate. The examples above are perfect for this range.

If you want the change to be so massive that it significantly impacts the dungeon itself (such as an empty forge waking up with tons of automatons and changed room keys), then consider making 6+ so that the guild has a chance to explore the original version of the dungeon first. The same advice goes for if the change is purely negative and something players would consider a fail state.

If you want the change to be small, or if you want the post-change state to be the core of the dungeon experience, then 2 ticks is appropriate (perhaps even 1, if you truly want to rush into it). Low numbers like these exist for assuring it will happen early. Best used when the true dungeon is the post-change version, as opposed to the event being a consequence to consider avoiding. If the number is too high for this, they may feel it too much work and risk to go back and look at old rooms (unless each key is VERY changed). Best to keep it low for this purpose!

Change Reset

When the guild returns to the City, the dungeon resets back to its base state (pre-event or change). There are two primary uses for this when we consider watches per tick:

• Natural Changes: When the empty add-up change/consequence is considered part of the exploration, make it 2 to 5. This can be a fun dynamic where after the guild explores for 10-18 watches, the dungeon changes. They will explore a while more in its new state, then return to the City (and the dungeon resets). A dungeon such as this should have a reason to be explored in both states. Even more interesting would be a way to forcibly change the state!
• A Consequence: Certain consequences could be intended to come towards the end of the guild's foray into the dungeon, and essentially serve as a soft "okay, time to leave" event. For example, a significant increase in enemy activity could serve well here, or the awakening of a powerful foe the guild is unlikely to succeed against.
  • With this in mind, 6 ticks may be appropriate, so that it occurs when the Meatgrinder is basically empty and the guild needs to restock anyway. Even if it occurs right when they already want to go home, the tension of pushing it just a little longer versus wimping out is a fun dynamic created by this. On the other hand, it competes with the already existing pressure of running low on torches/rations (and should therefore be unique enough to warrant its inclusion).

Resetting Totals

When the guild returns to the City, the total of empty draws is reset. If the clock didn’t fill, the event doesn’t happen. As you can see, the primary reason to use this is as a threat the guild will specifically want to avoid. This puts some pressure on your decision-making. If you make the number 5, they'll certainly encounter the consequence. So, will the guild leave early or push through it? Do you want them to put up with it when it begins, or be scared of it enough to flee before? If the goal is to serve as a soft-cap on exploration that the guild should leave before, then 6+ ticks is appropriate.

• Dungeon Alert: A natural usage of this particular style is the dungeon becoming more and more aware of the guild, with a return to the City allowing the heat to die down. As above, this ultimately depends on whether you want them to run into the alert, or cut it early. In theory, you can also allow for events that lower alert (see Tug-of-War below.)

Dungeon Cycles

When the Empty Add-Up clock is full, the event happens - and then a new clock begins. The next event can be an exact repeat of the first, a more dangerous version of the first, or something altogether different. Notably, a core feature inherent to the dungeon cycle is that once the first event occurs, all future events will happen much faster. Eventually, it gets to a point where the interval between events is simply the number of ticks. There's so many possible avenues for a dungeon cycle that I'll have to break them down into smaller concepts.

Event Repeat

If the original event repeats, then it obviously can't be a massive dungeon change. This is best suited for the appearance of a dangerous enemy or a recurring hazard; I think of the stalker-type enemies in Resident Evil as an example of this. As the guild explores the dungeon, they find themselves repeatedly being harassed - more and more often - by whatever this consequence is. Eventually, it will feel almost unavoidable.

For this reason, I suggest a wide range between 2 and 5. This is an odd one because while a lower number leads to a faster initial appearance (suggesting lower threat), it also makes it appear more often. There is a balance here between too dangerous versus too annoying to have appear that often, and you will have to judge this carefully. A higher number takes longer to appear (suggesting more danger), but then fades into the background more as it only appears every 5+ watches.

• Tip: What you may want to consider is increasing the clock size as the cycles complete. The first could be 2, second 3, and so on. This provides a good balance that makes up for the event spam that can begin once the Meatgrinder is nigh-empty.

Stacking Consequences

When the new clock fills, a consequence occurs that is likely worse than the original. This can be a linear progression or a randomly selected series. In either scenario, a low number here will lead to a hectic late exploration with things going wrong every few watches (the dungeon falling apart, perhaps). This is unlikely to be intended in most cases, so I suggest 5 ticks. Consequences should have the space to occur a couple times before players get scared of it getting worse.

• Alternatively, use the Tip above and raise the number of required ticks each time to spread out the pacing a little more.

Slow Cycles

When a clock fills, the effect happens and that's that - until the guild returns from the City, and a new clock is started. I initially believed this to be a good fit for dungeons that expect lots of play, and I stand by this. For a value like 5 ticks, there's a chance only 2 changes could happen across the entire span of exploring the dungeon. A low number of ticks has an interesting dynamic, wherein the change happens early into each Crawl Phase.

Another interesting usage is for a dungeon that requires regular traversal to get to deeper floors; it changes slowly over time, until perhaps one day the guild realizes their safe path is surrounded by horribly metamorphosed side-paths.

Tug-of-War

While the clock fills on empty draws, the guild has opportunities to lower the number of ticks. This dynamic is particularly interesting due to how the Meatgrinder works; while they will be able to stave it off for a time, eventually nearly every watch will provide a tick.

In all honesty, I don't think using this as-is will be very fun because most ticks come all at once towards the end. Instead, you could find ways to let the guild reset the number of ticks and/or force the clock to ignore a certain number of empty draws. In a sense, the guild could give the clock "Defense" that ticks need to lower before the clock's "Health" can be affected.

• It is worth noting, however, that 6+ ticks may be suitable for this purpose; they will probably return to the City before it fills, and have time to potentially lower it on their return trip before the empty spiral. A large clock with Underworld-wide consequences upon completion seems like an excellent purpose for this.
• This leads to the concept of a Piercing Tick being considered...

Summary

And so, that's yet another post on the Meatgrinder. My numbers definitely changed how I felt about certain methods of using the Empty Add-Up, but I still think it's a very fun system with a lot of interesting use-cases if paced correctly. Dare I say it: I would encourage GMs to be willing fudge the size of their clocks should you have selected a number far from your intentioned pacing.

1. Nearly all of your empty draws will happen post-15 watches.
2. For 5 ticks worth of empty draws, expect 17-22 watches to pass.
   • If you average the absolute minimum and absolute maximum draws required, you will get a reasonable estimate of required watches.
3. Use a low number for events you want to happen early, and a high number for events you want to possibly not happen at all.
   • 2 is a reasonable low number, while 6+ are reasonably high.

As always, thanks for reading!

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